Who wins Kano?
By Ali M. Ali (aliyumaliyu@yahoo.com) WHO wins Kano? This is the billion naira question. It is on the lips of every citizen of Kano old enough to know the difference between men and mice. The question again. Who wins Kano gubernatorial polls? Who gets sworn in on May 29th? Is it the incumbent, Shekarau? Is it the challenger, Kwankwaso? Is it the new kid on the block, Riruwai? Or is it a total dark horse, barely known and heard of probably with a forgettable name? Hardly. The question remains and is begging for an answer.
The question can't be answered now. The answer must wait till the election is conducted in April. It's uplifting that all Nigerians are agreed that free and fair election held at intervals remains the best option for engaging competent leaders and firing lousy ones by the vast majority. In a democracy, the voter is king. They get to choose a leader of their choice induced or free willed. Nigerians have a date with history in April.
The polls may be a heart beat away, but the hearts of contenders and supporters are palpitating literally dancing the yoyo. The faint heart worries in her heart of hearts. Is victory mine? Can I win? What do I do to win? Who I undermine or sabotage to win? She asks ceaselessly. The confident heart worries not, believing firmly that 'what will be will be', as decreed by the Infallible One. Victory and failure are not within the preserve of mortal men, this heart believes, strongly.
In less than a hundred days, a man may likely renew his mandate back to back, another is likely to kiss the canvass again, back to back and yet another is more than likely to get noticed. But this is politics, no scenario is absolute. Twenty four hours is a very long time. A lot of water, like they always say, would have passed under the bridge in that time. A hundred days in politics is an eternity.
In politics ala 'Nigeriana', it's highly possible for an elephant to pass through the eye of the needle in a twinkle of an eye than an upright politician popular with the masses to win an election. I know that conventional wisdom calls it a camel but in these days of 'garrison' politics an aspirant without a godfather is a hapless as a Saddam Hussein in George W. Bush's White House. It's a lot easier for whale in 'garrison politics' to pass through the eye of the needle than a front runner to breast the tape of victory. Front runners in our kind of politics have been known to inexplicably trip over and take the lead from the rear (apologies to Agbese) because the godfather says nay even when the people say aye!
Politics is unpredictable everywhere. In Australia or Africa, politics is the same-erratic, impulsive, and volatile even. Politics is a game played by men with other men without binding rules. It must therefore, be random. Our politics however, is more than a quicksand. It is admirably fluid. Till the Day of Judgment as on the day of election, nobody can say for certain who will win in a free and fair election.
In Kano, it is even more so. Everything is done at the drop of a heart. Just when outsiders think all roads lead to one political destination point, something unexpected happens overnight and overturns all the permutations. Insiders know better. They know that our politics is something of a paradox. It is conservatively radical. The untutored think that the politics of Kano is a conundrum, but it is not. It is just that the people, as in Talakawa detest and resist oppression. Kano remains the hotbed of political radicalism yet it houses and respects one of the most enduring traditional institutions with over a thousand year history.
True, there are tuwo (in Yoruba land, amala) politicians among us who believe that the road to a voter's heart is through his stomach, but even such a benevolent godfather can't solely point at the political direction. For one, the voters have a reputation of eating his tuwo or amala and flatly refusing to vote the godfather's choice.Infact they may even vote against him. It happened in 2003.It happened twenty years earlier before that time. I believe it will happen again and again.
Once upon a time, the venerated late Malam Aminu Kano held the ace not so much because he was an amala politician but because he lived and died fighting the cause of the poor. They believed him. They followed him. They respected him. He demanded none of the three adulations. He earned all of them. Since then no one has truly filled those big political shoes among the tribe of pretenders of late Malam's political persuasion.
Secondly, voters in Kano value leadership more than truck load of GMGs (Ghana-Must-Go).A loaded candidate running for government house is a doomed candidate. He is like a red flag trying to charge through an army of angry bulls. Money, lots of it, in our politics, is a poisoned gift. The voters would be sceptical. Most would think the politician once ensconced in the cosy confines of government house may think he bought his mandate and therefore not answerable to them. He may also think they are for sale all of the time. Besides the voters may not have anything to commend or criticise in the way government is being ran. They are passionate about their independence and franchise.
The masses have been able to delicately balance political extremism and traditional stoicism admirably well. The two are intertwined but yet the Talakawa insist each should not 'poke nose' in the affairs of the other. It is a sensible arrangement. It has been rewarding for both sides.
Once an exuberantly youthful governor 'poked nose' in the affairs of the traditional institution, his nose was 'bloodied'. Once, the longest reigning Monarch in history crossed the line by naively commenting on a political matter close to the heart of his subjects. They openly rebelled. Both instances occurred separately within nearly a quarter of each other.
The masses are informed enough to rise against an incipient tyrant with their votes or deeds. They are not colour blind. Sentiments of whatever hue don't blind them. That explains why for instance, they voted Abiola in the inconclusive 1993 presidential election and left 'son-of-soil' Tofa gawking. They are educated enough to figure out a political fraudster miles away.
Truly no single individual holds the ace in Kano. It's has always been a close call between and among all contenders, challengers and some would add, pretenders in every election. Such is the sinuous nature of Kano politics that makes political star gazing in a hundred days a difficult -- actually impossible task.
Again, there is the unproven jinx of second term. Kano and Oyo states have a thing in common. No governor has ever succeeded in renewing his mandate after a successful first term. A fiery and forty something old Rimi attempted and failed in the old and larger Kano in 1983. A quasi philosopher king who answered the name of Bola Ige similarly crashed in the old and larger Oyo state in 1983.
Fast forward to 2003.An overtly confident Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso treaded the same path of electoral defeat a more assertive Rimi strode and got crushed in the hands of the Kano voters. In Oyo, voters lived up to their billing. Lam Adesina, the governor discovered that held the short end of expired mandate at the end of votes count.
Bu this is 2007.We are in the era of garrison politics. Nothing is impossible. The pattern may have changed in Oyo. The state is in the throes of garrison politics. The Oyo of today has lost 'it'. Its politics is without a soul. Kano still bubbles. Nothing is SPECIFIC here. Only last month, the incumbent deputy governor contested the primaries against his boss. In other climes in the polity where garrison politics holds sway, this would have been inconceivable. A Number 2 going against the Boss? Unthinkable.
So who wins Kano? Shekarau? Kwankwaso? Riruwai? Dark horse? Who wins? There are plenty of men and women of eighteen years and above eagerly waiting to answer that question with their votes in April. Before that time however, let me hazard a guess. This may sound out of sync with my earlier postulations about political star gazing.
I asked the computer who wins Kano? She is built not to make mistakes. She is infallible. I fed Shekarau into her. Shaker, Shear, Shearer etc, the computer replies. Surely the computers most know who Malam is.
If the computer does not recognise Shekarau, surely it knows Kwankwaso. Even machines know 'Mai takalmin Karfe'. She says 'can't find'. Imagine such impudence! A computer in Nigeria doesn't know a former deputy speaker of House of Representatives, ex-governor of the most populous state and former Defence Minister of the most populous country in Africa. Such robotic insolence!
Next, I fed Riruwai. Wallah, she recognises only 'Ritual, Reread, Airway'.The computer is smart.She knows that she can't make the affairs of men, the affairs of robots. Only voters with living tissues can decide who wins Kano in April, the computer reasons and reasonably too.
Pensioners have already signalled who their man is. In October last year they pulled together the sum of five million naira to buy nomination form for Shekarau in the coming polls. It is their way of saying they are happy. Pensioners are not alone. In 2005, organised labour endorsed Shekarau. Under his leadership, minimum wage was reviewed upwards, promotions are given when due, salaries and allowances paid promptly, over thirty-five thousand men and women were recruited, several thousands of idle youth equipped with some handcraft, quality infrastructure provided and more importantly, societal re-engineering and human development were massively supported.
Kwankwaso too, parades an intimidating credential. His political CV is as threatening as his politics. It truly qualifies him for the presidency. His record in office as chief executive of Kano nearly four years ago earned him the sack by his employers -- the voters. And then there is a subsisting White Paper hanging over his head. He fired workers almost at will and generally antagonised everybody in the labour force.
And Riruwai?He is touted to be a responsive leader who listens and who acts. In the old NEPA Riruwai was like Robin Hood except that he was not a thief. He was robbing the rich to dash the poor. He was too providing jobs to those who needed them without even knowing or meeting them. If you were qualified and there was an opening,Riruwai would give you the job.I think a later day Sardauna(Ahmadu Bello)is a better equivalent.He is a good man no doubt except that the impending duel is between a former governor and a current governor.There is hardly a place for Riruwai.He is like a sheep in a stampede of camels
Both Shekarau and Kwankwaso are rallying on their proof of service to break the second term jinx. Going by their respective track record, who then wins Kano?Your guess is as good as mine.
Ali M.Ali writes from No 248 Gyadi-Gyadi off Hospital road, Kano